1. HOW THIS PROJECT BEGAN

A few years ago I mentioned to Doctor John Schofield of Elsenham Surgery that I had re-written the St Marys, Henham records of births, marriages and burials for the period 1539 - 1800s. He said that there was some evidence of nature quickly compensating for any population decline following a catastophe. He wondered if the parish registers had any corroborating evidence of significant human decline and recovery following famine, disease or war.

I'd never heard of a sudden fertility increase in nature other than when a lion kills his new partner's existing cubs whereupon she quickly comes into season. I thought that was more to do with him perpetuating his genes across the pride rather than any move by her to adjust numerical imbalance within it.

John's question seemed simple enough until you considered all the possible explanations for concurrent high mortality and high fertility. Many societies throughout history have used, and some still do, a conveyor-belt of children as domestic help in the field, at home and also as sources of additional family income. It is an insurance policy in a risky, accident-prone enviroment. Abnormal swings in concurrent death and birth rates can be partly due to society invoking the 'replacement effect' but this is only for child mortality. Other swings can be due to bad weather such as the terrible winter of 1963 which saw high death rates among the elderly followed by a 'baby boomer' year allegedly due to younger adults having gone to bed earlier in the evenings because of the weather, travel restrictions, power cuts, boredom(?) etc.

In March 2009 The World Bank Sustainable Development Network published a paper by its 'global facility for disaster reduction and recovery' unit. The paper contended that the fertility response is a response to a shock. The author continued - 'the decision for extra children is ex post rather than ex ante in the case where children are used as insurance. From data obtained from Turkey, from the sample of individuals who have always lived in the same place, there is a positive fertility response in addition to the fertility response to mortality. The author found that the fertility response to exposure to natural disasters to be positive and significant. Furthermore this response was additional to the response to child mortality – the well-known 'replacement effect'. The data showed a positive response to child mortality of just under a one-for-one replacement, and in areas affected by the earthquake there is an additional positive fertility response. If all variables of culture, economy, regional variation etc (all socioeconomic and demographic variables) influencing the number of children born to a woman are considered, then the results suggest that exposure to an earthquake does induce a positive fertility response over and above the mortality response.' Intriguingly, shock has its own trigger for survival.


No recorded historical disaster is fully comparable to the potential catastophe of a large-scale nuclear war. The Black Death of 1348-50, however approaches a hypothetical nuclear war in geographical extent, abruptness of onset, and scale of casualties. In other important respects its impact was unlike that of war; in particular, there was no direct destruction of material property. And, in addition, the 14th century is so distant in time from the current period as to preclude the drawing of easy parallels. Nevertheless, the analysis of even such a remote historical experience may help illuminate some of the sources of, and limitations upon, the human potentialities for recovery from any great catastophe.'


So if you have swings which can be due to coincidence, accidents or design, the only way find evidence of the shock 'trigger' is to compare abnormal swings against known dates of famine, disasters, and epidemics within a reasonably static population. Fortunately we do have a well-documented history of such catastrophes. To refine still further, you need to compare those swings against what was happening in the parish church registers. The Medieval tradition of serfdom, of a man being permanently bound to a specific master, coupled with the censure imposed by the church ensured a settled population. Church registers are consquently fairly reliable save for a few exceptions as given below.



2. DATES OF MAJOR FAMINE, DISEASES & DISASTERS


A. Historical records show that there were at least 17 periods of crisis mortality in England between 1500 and 1670. From http://www.hunimex.com/warwick/diseases.html I've reproduced a table of plagues, diseases and natural disasters throughout modern history.


From

To
Ailment

Location

Notes

1348

1350

Bubonic Plague

UK & worldwide

Further outbreaks occurred during most of the 14th & 15th centuries.

1499

 

Bubonic Plague

London UK

 

1507

1550

"Fever"

UK

 

1551

 

Influenza

UK

 

1555

 

Famine

UK

Rains brought famine and weakness

1556

1563

Bubonic Plague

UK

This was an extreme event

1578

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1586

 

Bubonic Plague

Chesterfield UK

All harvests failed

1591

 

Acute Distress

UK

As a result of above

1593

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1596

 

Famine

UK

Harvests failed & epidemics began

1603

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1612

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1623

1625

Bad Harvest

UK

 

1625

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1630

 

Plague

UK

At worst, many thousands died

1631

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1633

1634

Smallpox

UK

 

1636

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1654

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

 

1665

 

Bubonic Plague

UK

Extreme

1723

 

Influenza

worldwide

 

1723

1730

Famine

UK

Poor harvests & resultant epidemics

1732

1733

Influenza

UK

 

1743

 

Influenza

UK

 

1751

1753

Smallpox

UK

 

1762

 

Influenza

UK

 

1767

 

Influenza

UK

 

1775

1776

Influenza

worldwide

 

1782

 

Influenza

UK

 

1785

 

Influenza

UK

 

1788

1789

Influenza

UK

 

1793

 

Diphtheria

UK

 

1796

 

Smallpox

UK

 

1816

1819

Typhus & Smallpox

UK

 

1825

1826

Smallpox

UK

 

1826

1837

Cholera

worldwide

 

1830

 

Influenza & Cholera

UK

 

1831

 

Cholera

UK

Began world wide independent 1826. Killed 31,000 in UK alone.

1836

1837

Influenza

UK

 

1837

1841

Typhus

UK

Killed on average 16,000 people per year.

1838

1840

Measles & Whooping Cough

UK

Killed about 50,000

1840

 

Scarlet Fever

UK

Killed 20,000

1846

1847

Typhoid

UK

Killed 30,000. Caused by a hot dry summer.

1846

1847

Influenza

UK

Killed 13,000

1847

 

Typhus & Influenza

UK

 

1848

 

Cholera

worldwide

 

1849

 

Cholera

UK

in Bromsgrove 25 people died between July and October.
Not limited to Bromsgrove !

1853

 

Cholera

UK

Began in Birmingham

1855

 

Cholera

UK

 

1857

 

Influenza

worldwide

 

1857

1859

Smallpox

UK

Killed over 14,000

1863

 

Smallpox

UK

Killed over 20,000

1865

 

Cholera

UK

 

1870

1872

Smallpox

UK

Killed 44,800, 7,706 in Birmingham alone

 

B. From 'The Impact of Plague in Tudor and Stuart England'  by Paul Slack

Famine 1556, Great Famine 1586-1588, Plague 1586 - 1588, 1603, Black Death 1665 (by June 1665, more than 7,000 deaths per week in London.

Between the years 1550 and 1600 there were five severe attacks of Black Death, the last of which killed 30,000 Londoners - 1563, 1586, 1588, 1603, 1625 and 1665. In Essex there were also plagues in 1504, 1518, 1540, 1550, 1557-58, 1625-26, 1637-40.

In every case, except for London, the later 1550s were exceptional for the number of wills - rising to well over twice the norm for 2 - 3 years. Mortality crises seemed to hit many parts of the country in the 1520s and 1540s and were unusually severe in the later 1550s.



C. 'The Population History of England 1541-1871': A Reconstruction (1981)

Table A10.2, page 653 by E.A. Wrigley & R.S.Schofield. It is taken from 404 parish registers for the years of high mortality, the period 1540 - 1666, and shown as a percentage above the national norm. In the 4th column P = presumed plague and P+ = plague and other diseases. From this publication I've taken the following table. I've reproduced it so that you can see the percentage of a parish population that perished in an epidemic.


Year
(1st July-30th June)

National Death Rate
(% above national trend)

% of parishes affected

 

1544-1545

23.3

19.6

P

1545-1546

26.6

15.5

P

 

 

 

 

1557-1558

60.5

32.5

 

1558-1559

124.2

39.1

 

 

 

 

 

1587-1588

29.5

16.1

 

 

 

 

 

1592-1593

29.8

9.1

P

 

 

 

 

1596-1597

20.9

17.6

 

1597-1598

25.6

18.7

 

 

 

 

 

1603-1604

21.0

14.8

P

 

 

 

 

1624-1625

26.6

13.0

 

1625-1626

43.0

14.6

P

 

 

 

 

1638-1639

35.1

17.9

P+

 

 

 

 

1643-1644

29.3

14.0

P+

 

 

 

 

1657-1658

42.9

16.8

 

1658-1659

25.1

11.5

 

 

 

 

 

1665-1666

31.7

9.7

P



D. Plague in England - national epidemics 1348-1665
(from http://urbanrim.org.uk/plague%20list.htm)

1399-1400 [3:131]
1405-1406 [3:131]; [4:141]
1411-1412 ‘another national epidemic’ [3:131]
1420-1423 Norfolk, ‘but the Rolls of Parliament bear undoubted witness to a very severe prevalence of plague in the North about the same time’ [1:221]; 1420 and 1423 [2:36]; 1423 [3:131].
1426-1429 [2:36]; ‘a London visitation in 1426, and a national epidemic in 1428-29’ [3:132]
1433-1435 ‘Here then, early in 1434, is the first distinct suggestion in the period 1430-1480 of something more that a local or regional epidemic’ [2:37]; ‘a national epidemic that lasted from 1433 to 1435’ [3:132]; 1433 or 1434 [4:143]
1438-1439 ‘a national epidemic’ [3:132]; [4:144]
1447-1454 ‘Parts of England experienced plague epidemics in 11 out of the 18 years between 1442 and 1459’ [3:132]; 1447-1454 [4:145]
1463-1465 [1:229]; ‘From 1463 to 1465, another severe epidemic hit the entire kingdom’ [3:132]; 1463 ‘“a greate pestilence...all England over’” [4:146]
1467 ‘In 1467 another epidemic swept through parts of England, and was possibly national in scope. If the Rolls of Parliament are to be believed, it was unquestionably an epidemic of plague’ [2:42]; [3:132]
1471 ‘evidence indicates that this epidemic was one of plague’ [2:44]; ‘in 1471, all of England was overwhelmed’ [3:132]
1479-1480 ‘This year [1479] saw great mortality and death in London and many other parts of this realm’ [1:231-232], ‘the great epidemic of 1479 in London and elsewhere’ [286]; ‘The most virulent epidemic of the fifteenth century was the plague of 1479-1480’ [2:14]; ‘From autumn to autumn, a combined epidemic of bubonic and pneumonic plague devastated all of Britain’ [3:133]
1499-1500 ‘the great epidemic of 1499-1500, in London and apparently also in the country’ [1:287]; [2:14]; [3:156]; the sixteenth century opened with ‘a great pestilence throughout all England’ [4:159]
1509-1510 [2:156]; 1509, a ‘great plague’ that afflicted various parts of England [4:160]

1516-1517
[3:156]
1523 [4:163]
1527-1530 [3:156]
1532 ‘There is supporting evidence that the disease was widespread’ [4:168]
1544-1546 1544 ‘several scattered, localized outbreaks of plague in England’ [4:178], 1545 north-east [180], south coast [181], 1546 westwards [182]
1563 ‘probably the worst of the great metropolitan epidemics’ [4:176], ‘and then extended as a major national outbreak of it’ [189]
1585-1587 ‘bubonic plague was busy in numerous places in England in the years from 1585 to 1587 inclusively’ [4:237]
1593 the ‘great metropolitan and national epidemic of 1593’ [4:176, 222]
1603-1604 [4:264]
1609-1610 ‘The next two years, 1609 and 1610, witnessed several severe outbreaks of bubonic plague in English towns’ [4:299].
1625 ‘the great outburst of 1625’ [4:313]
1637 ‘widely distributed in 1637 and a number of places experienced more or less severe visitations of it’ [4:389]
1645 ‘The year 1645 was one of severe plague in several towns at the same time’ [1:557]
1665 The Great Plague, affecting London in the main



The most general outbreaks in Tudor and Stuart England seem to have begun in 1498, 1535, 1543, 1563, 1589, 1603, 1625, and 1636, and ended with the Great Plague of London in 1665. It is sometimes stated that plague disappeared from England following the Great Plague. In fact, localised incidents were recorded after this event. The dominant explanation for the Black Death is the plague theory, which attributes the outbreak to Yersinia pestis.

So all the dates from para 2A - 2D give us the timeline against which we can compare our parish registers.


3. Other sources
a. Fertility Response to Natural Disasters. The Case of Three High Mortality Earthquakes by Jocelyn E. Finlay
b. 'The Plague in Essex' edited by Rosalin Barker in 1982. Held at Essex County Record Office under reference code C/DR 1/76




4. HENHAM CHRISTENINGS, MARRIAGES & BURIALS 1430 - 1930
(from Miss Winmill's papers, provided by her contact at the county record office).

The dates in red show the years when plague and famine are recorded either nationally or for Essex as at para 2 above.

On Sept. 5, 1538, English parish records were first ordered to be kept by Thomas Cromwell. This Cromwell was the vicar-general of Henry VIII. Earlier monks had kept rather unsystematic notes of births, marriages and deaths of noble and wealthy families as an aid to proving age and pedigrees for inheritance and title purposes. Cromwell ordered that vital records be kept of everyone. Since the clergyman was often the only local person who could write, and the church had been established by the king, it was the ideal organization to collect this information. The original law said that all baptisms, marriages and deaths were to be written down in a book after service on Sunday evenings, in the presence of the churchwardens. No doubt this was an imposition on the villagers who had to rush home to tend to their animals and chores. After the fall of Thomas Cromwell in 1540, parish registers were abandoned in many areas, and it was not until 1558 that they were again required

At that time some registers were kept on loose paper sheets, and this caused concern to then monarch, Queen Elizabeth I. In 1597, she ordered that all existing registers were to be copied into "fair parchment books." In large parishes, this was a mammoth task. Due to a loophole in the directive, some clergy simply started their task in 1558 and ignored what had gone before. Others dutifully re- copied the earlier registers. However, rarely has the original paper registers survived so a comparison of the two can be made. Hence, you will discover that many parish registers begin in 1558 rather than 1538, when they officially started. Also, starting in 1597, transcripts of these parish registers were suppose to be sent to the bishop within a month after Easter. This practice lasted until 1837 when civil registration began. Fortunately Henhams vicars were among the more diligent as our registers do go back to 1539.

Both the parish registers and bishops' transcripts have gaps — due to loss and fire — and researchers should always check both sets of records. There also is a large gap in most English parish records from about 1649 to 1660 — called the Commonwealth period. This gap for 1647 - 1659 appears in the Henham parish registers. In 1653 all register-keeping was taken out of the hands of the clergy and transferred to a layman called the parish register. Some of these men selected were excellent record keepers; others were dreadful writers and spellers.



yr

chr

m

b

yr

chr

m

b

yr

chr

m

b

yr

chr

m

b

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1430

1

m

 

1600

14

4

19

1700

21

3

10

1800

13

3

14

1539

14

7

8

1601

30

3

7

1701

13

7

11

1801

14

3

15

1540

18

1

13

1602

18

4

9

1702

17

8

12

1802

20

6

20

1541

21

6

10

1603

24

0

2

1703

20

3

7

1803

17

5

14

1542

18

4

15

1604

17

2

4

1704

15

3

14

1804

16

10

13

1543

24

2

7

1605

22

3

8

1705

21

?

13

1805

26

4

8

1544

13

2

14

1606

17

3

15

1706

17

3

9

1806

20

8

6

1545

19

3

12

1607

22

6

9

1707

17

4

5

1807

42

4

9

1546

16

4

19

1608

23

7

10

1708

16

2

8

1808

28

5

9

1547

24

3

6

1609

19

7

10

1709

14

?

12

1809

38

3

9

1548

24

2

9

1610

23

2

10

1710

11

?

5

1810

18

5

17

1549

18

2

9

1611

23

6

7

1711

15

2

12

1811

24

4

13

 

1550

18

6

7

1612

15

3

15

1712

9

1

6

1812

23

6

9

1551

27

1

9

1613

19

1

11

1713

13

2

6

1813

27

4

10

1552

19

1

14

1614

15

1

12

1714

16

3

23

1814

26

10

13

1553

19

7

7

1615

12

7

18

1715

21

5

10

1815

34

10

6

1554

3

0

2

1616

19

7

19

1716

18

3

9

1816

28

5

11

1555

14

6

8

1617

17

3

10

1717

16

4

13

1817

30

4

5

1556

19

1

7

1618

17

3

8

1718

15

2

3

1818

37

5

11

1557

13

2

8

1619

12

2

5

1719

22

2

15

1819

31

7

15

1558

13

2

23

1620

17

6

5

1720

10

3

6

1820

25

8

7

1559

13

3

9

1621

20

6

12

1721

24

3

12

1821

29

7

9

1560

15

4

17

1622

16

6

9

1722

24

3

15

1822

29

2

10

1561

15

2

5

1623

19

4

16

1723

17

5

15

1823

24

5

5

1562

18

2

4

1624

22

6

12

1724

20

5

8

1824

38

9

4

1563

13

7

7

1625

10

4

17

1725

20

5

13

1825

24

4

10

1564

17

5

8

1626

17

4

12

1726

11

5

8

1826

26

8

23

1565

12

9

6

1627

16

4

5

1727

18

4

11

1827

34

5

8

1566

8

0

0

1628

17

7

14

1728

14

4

19

1828

32

5

12

1567

9

0

2

1629

7

4

6

1729

12

?

22

1829

29

6

13

1568

19

6

6

1630

9

2

12

1730

17

2

19

1830

30

3

11

1569

16

4

11

1631

11

6

12

1731

22

8

20

1831

31

3

9

1570

12

4

3

1632

15

7

10

1732

19

2

11

1832

31

5

12

1571

12

1

11

1633

13

7

11

1733

19

?

10

1833

30

8

9

1572

12

8

7

1634

16

3

9

1734

22

6

11

1834

40

6

9

1573

16

4

7

1635

17

4

10

1735

24

5

12

1835

23

10

17

1574

10

2

5

1636

15

10

12

1736

23

?

8

1836

33

5

12

1575

14

7

4

1637

16

2

11

1737

20

3

8

1837

18

2

9

1576

25

6

3

1638

14

1

17

1738

13

7

15

1838

21

2

13

1577

13

1

5

1639

15

7

20

1739

17

4

10

1839

23

4

14

1578

17

4

6

1640

17

6

13

1740

14

2

11

1840

22

7

9

1579

14

5

6

1641

14

9

9

1741

26

3

16

1841

20

4

12

1580

12

3

8

1642

24

2

20

1742

14

3

15

1842

25

8

16

1581

15

4

4

1643

8

4

10

1743

25

7

11

1843

20

7

15

1582

13

4

9

1644

14

4

22

1744

24

2

15

1844

28

8

15

1583

16

3

5

1645

16

?

9

1745

13

4

9

1845

31

10

11

1584

19

6

6

1646

12

?

7

1746

27

4

16

1846

24

6

13

1585

19

2

6

1647

13

?

14

1747

18

?

19

1847

18

4

9

1586

13

2

4

1648

13

?

15

1748

23

2

10

1848

28

4

15

1587

13

4

8

1649

4

?

?

1749

15

2

15

1849

24

4

18

1588

13

5

7

1650

7

?

?

1750

25

4

10

1850

26

4

18

1589

20

3

5

1651

13

?

?

1751

17

3

14

1851

20

1

17

1590

17

4

10

1652

10

?

?

1752

13

4

14

1852

25

3

9

1591

20

7

9

1653

11

?

?

1753

29

1

9

1853

19

3

17

1592

16

5

11

1654

10

?

?

1754

13

5

8

1854

20

2

11

1593

22

8

3

1655

7

?

100 ?

1755

18

2

8

1855

20

8

21

1594

22

0

5

1656

19

?

?

1756

17

5

12

1856

16

4

7

1595

20

2

10

1657

14

?

?

1757

20

2

12

1857

27

2

16

1596

4

2

8

1658

17

?

?

1758

17

2

35

1858

19

8

14

1597

11

2

11

1659

11

?

?

1759

25

1

11

1859

21

5

15

1598

19

3

10

1660

19

2

3

1760

23

4

13

1860

19

6

11

1599

25

2

8

1661

20

?

8

1761

17

4

16

1861

16

1

13

        1662

13

?

8

1762

18

6

15

1862

17

6

11

        1663

16

3

9

1763

20

8

12

1863

21

7

16

        1664

8

2

7

1764

26

3

7

1864

14

7

17

        1665

12

2

12

1765

20

4

13

1865

24

3

10

        1666

11

2

13

1766

22

1

25

1866

7

8

11

        1667

15

4

8

1767

19

2

10

1867

17

7

16

        1668

17

?

6

1768

18

6

22

1868

13

3

9

        1669

13

6

10

1769

25

8

15

1869

20

4

20

        1670

15

3

6

1770

24

5

10

1870

13

7

17

        1671

14

?

8

1771

18

1

17

1871

18

11

6

        1672

10

3

7

1772

22

6

16

1872

22

5

13

        1673

18

2

9

1773

25

2

8

1873

9

6

12

        1674

11

?

8

1774

15

4

14

1874

21

8

12

        1675

9

2

20 inc 13 in May & June

1775

27

3

6

1875

18

4

16

        1676

13

2

12

1776

25

5

12

1876

23

3

12

        1677

13

2

11

1777

27

3

16

1877

19

3

16

        1678

11

3

11

1778

24

1

17

1878

12

3

10

        1679

17

3

11

1779

24

7

18

1879

20

4

9

        1680

11

2

15

1780

17

4

15

1880

10

4

14

        1681

15

?

10

1781

27

?

16

1881

14

3

7

        1682

9

1

10

1782

11

3

31

1882

14

4

9

        1683

19

2

12

1783

25

3

15

1883

14

4

12

        1684

14

3

10

1784

14

6

13

1884

26

5

11

        1685

8

1

11

1785

26

7

6

1885

10

6

17

        1686

11

2

7

1786

18

5

18

1886

16

5

19

        1687

11

2

11

1787

25

2

8

1887

11

4

15

        1688

15

1

3

1788

21

7

11

1888

8

3

22

        1689

9

2

4

1789

22

6

5

1889

12

2

15

        1690

15

2

4

1790

24

7

11

1890

6

2

15

        1691

12

2

6

1791

20

4

?

1891

 

4

15

        1692

14

4

7

1792

20

7

10

1892

 

6

13

        1693

10

3

5

1793

22

6

11

1893

 

4

12

        1694

10

?

21

1794

22

2

14

1894

 

5

10

        1695

15

1

9

1795

15

2

21

1895

 

5

15

        1696

19

2

11

1796

19

1

14

1896

 

9

8

        1697

10

4

9

1797

20

?

15

1897

 

2

9

        1698

17

?

11

1798

20

4

11

1898

 

6

25

        1699

9

2

11

1799

16

3

9

1899

 

9

7

        1699 /
1700

2

 

 

1736 /7?

1

 

 

1900

 

 

7

                        1901

 

 

16

                        1902

 

 

7

                        1903

 

 

8

                        1904

 

 

9

                        1905

 

 

7

                        1906

 

 

8

                        1907

 

 

13

                        1908

 

 

10

                        1909

 

 

4

                        1910

 

 

8

                        1911

 

 

11

                        1912

 

 

9

                        1913

 

 

11

                        1914

 

 

7

                        1915

 

 

5

                        1916

 

 

6

                        1917

 

 

9

                        1918

 

 

5

                        1919

 

 

5

                       
1920
6
                       
1921
10
                       
1922
5
                       
1923
6
                       
1924
8
                       
1925
5
                       
1926
7
                       
1927
4
                       
1928
10
                       
1929
15
                       
1930
6


5. HIGH MORTALITY & BIRTH IN HENHAM

The national figures sometimes point the way, but the most important data is in the Henham parish church registers. The following table uses the figures in para 7 to show those years when Henham suffered from abnormally high mortality. The years marked in red are the dates recorded for NATIONAL and Essex plagues, famine etc from paras 1 - 4 above and NOT evidence of plague etc within Henham.


date
national causes
Henham casualties
1540
plague, particularly in Essex high deaths followed by a high birth rate in 1541
1542
1507 -1550 there were 'fevers' across Britain high deaths followed by a high birth rate in 1543
1544 - 1546
localised plagues high deaths followed by a high birth rate in 1547 and 1548
1550 - 1551
plague and influenza and plague particularly in Essex; 'English sweating sickness' high deaths followed by a high birth rate in 1552 & 1553; COTES family lost 4 in 2 years
1552
'English sweating sickness' high deaths with a high birth rate in 1551, 1552 and 1553
1555 - 1558
in 1555 severe rains brought famine and weakness. A delayed reaction to the Bubonic Plague in Henham for 1558 & 1560. Births only increase in 1562. WOODLEY family lost 5 in 2 years, WRIGHT family lost 5 in 12 months, KING family 3 in 2 weeks,
1568 - 1569
unknown cause local increase in deaths and births
1576
  local marked increase in births but no change in deaths
1587
  local increase in births in 1589
1593 - 1594
  local increase in births
1600
  local marked increase in deaths in 1600 and births in 1601; 19 burials: Clarke x 3, Stanes x 2, Furby x 2
1603 - 1615
a late affect of plague irregular rises and falls in births and burials throughout these years
1616
  local increase in deaths and births
1621
  local increase in deaths and births
1623 - 1624
bad harvests nationwide local increase in deaths and births
1625
Bubonic Plague and plague particularly in Essex increased deaths in 1626 followed by 3 years of increased births (1626-1628)
1637 -1640
plague particularly in Essex the effects are felt in Henham during 1638 - 1640
1642
  an immediate response in births to a sudden increase in deaths
1644 - 1645
1645 was recorded as affecting several towns simultaneously
Henham suffered in 1644
1654 - 1655
Bubonic Plague 100 deaths ? . Followed by a 100% increase i nbirths albeit on a low base figure. There is a gap in our parish records for the years 1648-1660 which might indicate that Henham was overwhelmed by this bout of plague.
1661
  an almost over-reactive rise in births in response to a lesser increase in births
1665
extreme Bubonic Plague known as The Black Death Henham has modest delayed effects in 1667 and 1668
1680
  the 1670s had a number of erratic variations in the births and deaths for Henham but 1680 shows a sharp 50% increase in deaths matched by a 50% increase in births in 1681
1683
  an unexplained almost 100% increase in births although we're still dealing with a small base figure. One excellent New Year party or terrible 1963-like winter can cause chaos in the figures!
1694
  a 300% - 400% increase in deaths is quickly followed in the following two years by a 50% - 100% rise in births.
1714 - 1715
  a sudden increase of deaths in 1714 with an almost equal response of births in 1715
1723
influenza slight effect although some really erratic figures in the years either side
1728 - 1730
famine, poor harvests and consequent epidemics generally more erratic figures in the years either side although an increase in births is sustained for a few years

1758

  an apparent rise in births is confronted by 35 burials in 1758 (Sarah & Timothy Bush, Turner senior & junior, Brand x 3, Pigram x 2, Clark x 3). Then follows 2 years of increased births
1766 - 1767
influenza in the UK Henham appears to suffer twice, once in 1766 and then in 1768 but 1769 and 1770 promptly provide birth increases
1782
influenza in the UK a sudden mortality increase is quickly followed in 1783 and 1785 by a birthrate rise
1785 - 1786
influenza in the UK the outbreaks of 1785, 1789 and 1793 largely pass us by save for the WATSON family who lost 3 children in 3 weeks
1795 - 1796
smallpox Henham suffered by a mortality rise of 33% in 1795 whilst the birthrate remained largely unchanged
1807 & 1809
  42 births then 38 births but no evidence of these large increases being a natural response to epidemics or famine
1810 & 1811
  mortality increase in both years are immediately followed by birth increases in 1811 & 1812
1814
  increase in mortalities followed the next year, 1815, by increased births
1819
typhus and smallpox 1818 and 1819 saw increased births and mortalities
1826
cholera an increase of more than 100% in deaths gets only a moderate response in births
1836
influenza in the UK Henham suffered earlier in 1835 however there are several irregular spikes for both births and deaths during this decade
1855
cholera a 100% mortality increase has to wait for 2 years to receive a 50% response in births
1857
smallpox a 100% mortality increase receives a 50% response in births
1863
smallpox in 1863 and 1864 the death rate rose by about 33% whilst the birth rates of 1863 and 1865 rose by about 50%
1870 - 1872
smallpox Henham appears to have caught this epidemic in 1869 yet immediately retaliated with a similar increased birth rate.



6. TRAVEL AND THE SPREAD OF INFECTION

The 1604 Plague Relief Act commanded that any infected person was to remain in his house. If an infected person attempted to 'break-out' of his house or resisted isolation to avoid further infection, then it was law full for a watchman to enforce containment within the house by the use of violence. If any infected person, having already been instructed to stay indoors, should 'wilfully go abroad and converse in company, having any infectious uncured sores upon him, then such persons shall be taken, deemed and judged as a felon, and to suffer pains of death'.

People did not travel around a lot during the Tudor and Elizabethan era. Travel could be dangerous and money was necessary. It was also unlawful to journey around England without a license, obtained from the Bailiff in the Guild Hall. This law ensured that the spread of disease, especially the plague, was contained as much as possible and that the poor and the homeless did not travel from one village to another village - an Elizabethan ploy to lower the crime and punishment levels in England.

It wasn't untill towards the close of the sixteenth century that the wagon became used as a public conveyance, and only very rarely then. As an example, it was only fifty years later that a string of stage-wagons had begun to travel regularly between London and Liverpool. The timber-framed Red Lion Inn that stands on the north-west corner of the crossroads in Bishops Stortford is first mentioned in 1661 and still trading in 1888. Charles II, sometimes accompanied by his mistress Nell Gwynne, often stayed here en route to Newmarket races and is said to have preferred it to the Crown Inn.

In 1750 the average coach journey from Cambridge to London took two days. In 1820 it only took 7 hours. The Regency period marked the beginning of the great age of coaching. From around 1810 to the 1830's coaches ruled the newly-sealed roads (thanks to Mr McAdam) and reached fantastic speeds of around 12 miles per hour allowing a free and easy flow of traffic, passengers and goods around the country. By 1837 there were 10 coaches every weekday from Cambridge to London. 1849 saw the last stage coach. This improvement in travel increased the risk of infection.

From our earliest records in SEAX in the county archives, we read that 'strangers' or 'travellers' weren't welcome in any village. There are several SEAX records of a village constable intercepting and arresting a stranger. Apart from being considered a criminal risk, they were clearly potential carriers of disease. So we need to allow for our geography, proximity to major roads and consider how long an epidemic might take to reach us from our nearest towns and cities.

We are quite close to three major Roman-built roads. The A120 runs from Harwich on our eastern coast to Colchester and then, as Stane Street, westward across the old A11 at Bishops Stortford and on to Standon in Hertfordshire where it meets the A10. The A11 came north from London, through the centre of Bishops Stortford, and on to Norwich. The A10, originally a Roman road known as Ermine Street, ran from London to Lincoln. Later it became known as the Great Cambridge Road or Old North Road terminating at King's Lynn in Norfolk. It joined the A1 Great North Road at Godmanchester between Cambridge and Alconbury. This may have had an affect on how quickly a plague could reach us from Dunmow, Cambridge or London or villages such as Newport (which had stagecoach inns) and thus reflected in our parish registers.


7. DID A SHOCKED HENHAM BOUNCE BACK ?


During the medieval and Elizabethan periods, Henham was a village of just a few hundreds. Therefore any apparent significant increase in the burial figures may not be the result of a national epidemic, a more localised famine or disease. Individual family misfortunes such as poverty and house fires can create large distortions. Furthermore Henham in the 16th century seems to have been a relatively healthy place to live since it was producing at least two births for every death.

The cause of, and age at, death are rarely recorded in Henham's registers. Infant mortality was a constant visitor in those centuries, so the 'replacement effect' should also be constant. Only rarely can we determine if two burials on the same day of two family members where one is a female, are either a mother and child or twins or perhaps an adult couple. In a village where several families shared the same surname, it is difficult (save for the devastating 1654-1655 Bubonic Plague outbreak) to prove if entire families were destroyed by a single catastrophe without genealogical knowledge of specific families.

We know that we're looking for abnormally high figures of deaths instantly followed by an abnormally high increase in births. We can then compare those results against recorded disaster dates. So, armed with the dates of epidemics etc plus our parish registers we should be able to answer the following simple questions -

1. where there years in which Henham suffer a marked increase in burials ?
2. if so, was there an increase in births during the following 2 years ?
3. if the answers to 1 & 2 are 'yes', do the dates indicate that 1 & 2 were a response to a recorded famine or sickness ? If so it would suggest an additional response to the 'replacement effect'. Was it a shock response ?







Firstly, the most striking figure in the table at para 4 is the 'reported' 100 deaths in the 1654-1655 Bubonic Plague outbreak. Sadly the parish registers for that period no longer exist but Miss Winmill did get official figures only a few decades ago from a county council source but it can't be used as 'evidence'. By size alone, this would have been the only instance of an epidemic which must have wiped-out entire families and a large percentage (at least 25%) of Henham's population. By comparison not-so-distant Braintree suffered severely in the Great Plague of 1665, where it killed 865 of the population of just 2,300 people or 37.6%

Despite there being no acceptable 'evidence' for the 100 deaths, 25 of the 45 events in the table at para 5 coincide with the dates of national disasters alone. There is some remarkable coincidence of fertility increase following most of the lesser outbreaks of plague and famine so that of the 44 lines in that table, almost all show an increased birth rate in response to disaster.

So it does seem that Henham has repeatedly 'shocked' itself back to recovery. Quite amazing !